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Figure 5: Actual and Predicted Annual Levels of Art. 177 References from Intra-EC Trade and Euro-rules

The Actual line plots the yearly number of art. 177 references by national courts to the ECJ, 1961-92. The Predicted line plots the number of annual references predicted by the regression analysis in which intra-EC trade, Euro-rules, and a post-1969 Dummy variable (coded "0" from 1961-69, and "1" from 1970-92) are the independent variables, and the annual number of art. 177 references for the EC as a whole is the dependent variable. Levels of aggregate trade begin with the original six member-states (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands), and as new member-states join the EC, their trade figures are included. Trade data are from Eurostat: External Trade 1958-93, Brussels: EC Publications, 1995. Euro-rules are the annual number of directives and regulations promulgated by the EC. The source for art. 177 references is data collected by the authors and the ECJ. The regression equation is y=2.84 + .0000731(intra-EC Trade) + 2.04(Euro-rules) + 31.35(post-1969 Dummy)+ e. The adjusted R²=.92, n=32, SEE=17.01, and the Durbin-Watson for the regression equation=2.18. The t-statistics are: .50 for the constant, 5.55 for intra-EC Trade, 2.04 for Euro-rules, and 3.34 for the post-1969 Dummy.

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